The Nintendo Switch doesn’t launch until March 3, 2017, but industry tracker SuperData is projecting Nintendo’s newest console to sell five million units by the end of the year.
Stating that the Nintendo Switch will have a slow launch because of a high upfront cost, SuperData believes the main group buying upfront are loyal Nintendo fans, while others will adopt later. According to SuperData, the biggest hurdle Nintendo will have to vault is convincing those users to adopt a second console.
“Asking $300 for a new console without a bundled game is a comparatively higher barrier to entry for consumers, considering that the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One are already discounted and come with a free game,” reads the report by SuperData. “Biggest available games at launch are Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild and 1-2-Switch (a party game). We expect the Zelda game to be the main driver of initial consumer adoption, but Nintendo needs to deliver a strong first and third-party slate of titles to build momentum towards the holiday season and the release of Super Mario Odyssey.”
Going back through Nintendo’s various launches, North America has the largest install base taking up 45 per cent. Europe comes next wat 35 per cent and Japan surprisingly comes in at 12 per cent (though that is one country compared to other continents).
SuperData is also stating Nintendo’s back is against the wall after a disappointing life cycle for the Wii U, which according to their numbers sold 13.46 million units making it the worst selling home console in the company’s history. Super Mario Run also didn’t see as wide of an appeal as Nintendo hoped, despite a big push from Apple. The game was downloaded 78 million times, but Nintendo reports that only about 4 million paid for it.