Earlier this year, Psychonauts 2 was revealed by Double Fine. Planned as a direct sequel to Tim Schafer's cult classic, the studio decided to turn to Fig as a crowdfunding service for fans. Why? Through the service, fans could invest in the game. Now, though, Psychonauts 2 fans on both NeoGAF and Reddit are growing worried that Double Fine and Fig's investment offering may prove too risky to make a proper return off the game.
Referencing investment data provided by Fig and Double Fine, the two companies suggested that a $500 investment with nearly 1,697.073 units sold at a wholesale of $21 USD would return $800 to an investor, as SiliconANGLE reports.
But two users at both NeoGAF and Reddit explored the contents within the circular, and came up with starting conclusions. Referring to the circular from the US Securities and Exchange Commission's approved offering on the project, the actual aggregate dividend for Psychonauts 2 holders seems much lower.
If Fig receives a total of $1,800,000 in crowdsourced investments, and the game sells for $60 with retailers, holders will only see a $1.70 return on each copy. If Fig maxes out their 6,000 shares offering, then investors will only see $2.83 for a total $3,000,000 investment.
But that return isn't per person. That's for the entire body of Fig investors. As the circular notes, "Aggregate dividend amounts will be distributed equally among all holders of the same series of Fig Game Shares, in proportion to the number of shares held, without regard to whether the shares were bought in this offering or otherwise." That means if a Psychonauts 2 investor puts forward $500 for one share, and the game receives $3,000,000 in investments, each game sold would pay out approximately $4.72x10^-4 per sale, or $.000472 per game sold. Which means the game would have to sell 1,059,323 copies just for an investor to break even.
And that doesn't even include adjusted gross receipts for $13,333,333, which would bump $1.8 million to $0.68 per game, and $3 million to $1.13. Once 317,764 copies were sold, the new payouts would take place. Essentially, even if you were well on your way to break even, the AGR would still bump up the required sales numbers significantly.
In other words, Psychonauts 2 would have to be a major success for investors to see a return on their shares. And while the original game did move nearly 1,700,000 million copies, most of those sales weren't within the first five years of its release.
Of course, Fig's Justin Bailey popped into the original Reddit thread to reiterate one of the terms within the circular: "Fig’s Board of Directors may in its discretion from time to time pay more than 30% of Fig’s revenue share from Psychonauts 2 to Fig Game Shares – PSY2 holders, if in its view business conditions permit it." Meaning the 30% offering in the circular "is intended to be a minimum dividend amount," as he puts it. But it still points to the fact that investing in Psychonauts 2 is a risky move.
Some fans are unphased, though. "I would still consider donating at this point but I would not be expecting any of my investment back," one NeoGAF user said. "The money would simply be there to make sure the game comes out as I adored the original." And that drive for a strong sequel may be more rewarding to fans than making a profit off the game.